Rarity estimates for 27 and 30 jewel Elgin automatics

Estimating production statistics for the 27 and 30 jewel Elgin automatics is difficult due largely to (1) the loss of records after Elgin’s U.S. production ended in the 1960s; and (2) Elgin’s decision to stop applying individual serial numbers to American-built watch movements around 1955-56, several years before the 27/30 jewel automatics were introduced.

Nonetheless, taking into account all the information we have, we estimate that the total combined production of 27 and 30 jewel Elgin automatics was in the range of 100,000 to 200,000 units, with perhaps a 60:40 split between the Elgin 27 jewel and Lord Elgin 30 jewel lines. An overall estimate of 150,000 seems plausible. We base this on several factors: (1) these watches were most actively manufactured and marketed for about 4 years, from 1959 to 1962; (2) they appear for sale today several times more frequently than the 18 jewel “bumper” automatics, 40,000 of which Elgin made a decade earlier; and (3) when new, they were significantly more expensive - and today are far rarer - than the best selling Elgin watches of this time period, the 17 jewel Sportsman and Starlite lines.

For the rarer watches in the 27/30 jewel line, we compare how often they appear against Elgin’s “50 millionth” 18k gold watch from 1951 (1,000 pieces made) to estimate rarity.

The rarity estimates for individual 27/30 jewel models (e.g., 27 jewel model “D”) are as follows:

R-5 = Estimated production under 100 pieces, and estimated 1-10 known, "Extremely Rare"

R-4 = Estimated production under 200 pieces, and estimated 11-20 known, "Rare"

R-3 = Estimated production under 500 pieces, and estimated 21-50 known, "Scarce"

R-2 = Estimated production under 1,000 pieces, and estimated 51-100 known, "Uncommon”

R-1 = Estimated production over 1,000 pieces, and estimated 100+ known, "Common"

Some of the more common “R-1” models, such as Elgin’s 27 jewel model “A”, were probably made in the tens of thousands, although there are scarce dial variants among these.